Siri’s Second Act: Why Analysts See Billions in Apple’s AI Future

For a company synonymous with impeccable timing and groundbreaking launches, Apple’s foray into advanced Artificial Intelligence has felt more like a protracted drama than a seamless innovation. Wall Street has been meticulously tracking Siri’s development schedule, with every whisper of a delay sending ripples through Apple’s market valuation. Yet, amidst the skepticism, one prominent voice, Wedbush Securities, is doubling down on its conviction: Siri’s much-anticipated revamp is firmly on track, and the true prize lies in its monetization potential.

The Market’s Credibility Test: Siri’s Slippery Schedule

Apple ($AAPL) has endured a year of scrutiny, largely graded on what it hasn’t

yet delivered in the AI space. The market, unable to directly quantify ‘Apple’s AI future,’ has fixated on the most tangible metric available: Siri’s shipping dates. Recent reports of ongoing testing snags for ‘personalized Siri’ capabilities have fueled investor anxiety, culminating in a staggering $202 billion drop in Apple’s market value during a single trading session. This isn’t just about a feature; it’s a perceived credibility test for a company built on delivering promises.

Wedbush’s Bold Counter-Narrative: 2026 is the AI Turning Point

In a recent note, Wedbush analysts, led by the ever-bullish Dan Ives, vehemently argued that the recent sell-off is ‘unwarranted.’ Ives frames the ongoing Siri saga as a ‘soap opera’ finally entering its decisive ‘2026 release phase.’ Wedbush posits that 2026 will be the year Apple truly ‘gets into the AI game,’ asserting that the market is mispricing a rollout that remains on schedule, even if its ‘much anticipated AI features’ – including a comprehensively revamped Siri – arrive in phases across multiple iOS updates.

Navigating the Nuances of Rollout

That ‘even if’ carries significant weight. Internal testing issues could indeed push some ‘personalized Siri’ features, initially targeted for iOS 26.4 (expected in March), into iOS 26.5 in May, with others potentially slipping to iOS 27 in September. Apple has attempted to contain the narrative, confirming to CNBC its plan to launch a smarter Siri in 2026, albeit without specifying an exact month. Furthermore, Apple’s March 4 product event appears unlikely to feature significant AI announcements, extending the wait.

Each delay, however minor, shifts the probability of two critical outcomes: a significant iPhone upgrade cycle and the introduction of a new, lucrative paid-services layer. Bulls envision a strategic setup; skeptics, a concerning pattern.

Apple’s AI Blueprint: Distribution Over Dominance

To bolster his optimistic stance, Ives highlights several key developments: new external AI leadership within Apple Park, the strategic importance of a rebuilt Siri architecture, and a ‘cemented’ multiyear partnership with Google ($GOOGL). This collaboration will see the next generation of Apple Foundation Models powered by Google’s Gemini models and cloud technology, forming the backbone of future Apple Intelligence features, including Siri.

Apple’s strategy appears to pivot away from winning the theoretical ‘model arms race.’ Instead, it aims for unparalleled distribution: seamlessly integrating AI through its device layer, wrapped in its hallmark privacy promises, deeply embedded within its expansive ecosystem, and monetized via its robust billing relationships. The critical question for investors remains whether Apple can cultivate an AI platform – for both developers and consumers – that transforms the iPhone into the definitive gateway to the consumer AI era.

Beyond just features, there’s evidence Apple is fundamentally reshaping Siri. Bloomberg reported in January that Apple intends to transform Siri into its inaugural AI chatbot, internally codenamed ‘Campos,’ designed for pervasive integration across iPhone, iPad, and Mac operating systems.

The Monetization Mandate: Siri as a Billable Service

Wedbush is strategically shifting the market conversation from ‘Will Siri be smarter?’ to the more financially compelling ‘Will Siri be billable?’ The firm’s note projects that ‘AI monetization’ could add a substantial $75 to $100 per share to Apple’s valuation in the coming years. Wedbush anticipates an AI-driven subscription service launching by fall, targeting Apple’s colossal installed base of 2.5 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones.

Other analysts echo this sentiment. Bernstein recently raised its Apple price target to $340 from $325, noting that ‘the bigger story will be Apple Intelligence / Siri 2.0 coming sometime this year.’ A staggered rollout, they suggest, is manageable if Apple ultimately delivers a durable services tailwind.

The Bear’s Shadow: The Cost of Continued Delays

The counter-argument is starker and simpler. Apple has cultivated a consumer base accustomed to waiting for perfection and an investor base willing to pay a premium for inevitability. If 2026 merely brings another series of staged demos and sliding deadlines, the market will continue to treat Siri’s progress as a referendum on Apple’s future, and the stock will remain volatile, reacting to every perceived delay.

Ives himself cautioned that any significant delays would become ‘an albatross’ for the stock. The recent trading patterns underscore this: investors will likely continue to penalize Apple until Siri demonstrates consistent, real-world performance. Wedbush, however, maintains that the current sell-off is an emotional reaction, emphasizing that the underlying AI platform is the true strategic objective, with subscriptions and services layered onto Apple’s gargantuan installed base representing the ultimate payoff.

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