The AI Energy Paradox: Data Centers Fuel a Global Gas Resurgence, Threatening Climate Goals
The relentless march of artificial intelligence, heralded as the next frontier of technological advancement, is inadvertently ushering in a new era for an old energy source: natural gas. As data centers expand to accommodate the insatiable processing demands of generative AI, the world is witnessing an unprecedented surge in new gas power projects, with profound implications for global climate objectives.
A Global Surge Led by the US
The United States finds itself at the forefront of this energy pivot, leading a worldwide boom in gas-fired power plant development. In 2025 alone, global gas-fired power generation capacity in development soared by an alarming 31 percent. Nearly a quarter of this added capacity is earmarked for the US, which has now eclipsed China as the country with the most significant increase. A staggering one-third of this US growth is projected to directly power the ever-growing network of data centers, according to a recent analysis by the nonprofit Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
This rapid expansion, while catering to the immediate energy needs of cutting-edge AI infrastructure, carries a heavy environmental cost: more planet-heating pollution.
The AI Demand and Its Uncertain Future
The drive to integrate more powerful hardware into burgeoning data centers for generative AI has led to projections of skyrocketing electricity demand. Yet, a significant degree of uncertainty clouds the long-term integration of AI into daily life. Many proposed data center projects could ultimately falter, leaving a trail of environmental and economic consequences.
Jenny Martos, project manager for GEM’s Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker, warns of the inherent risks: “There is a risk that this capacity could lock in future emissions and become stranded assets if anticipated electricity demand from AI never materializes.” Despite these uncertainties, the aggressive push for new gas plants in the name of AI is actively undermining efforts to transition towards cleaner, renewable energy sources.
Gas: A Double-Edged Sword
The year 2026 is already poised to be a record-breaker for gas expansion. Should all proposed projects come to fruition, the added capacity would surpass the previous record set in 2002, a period synonymous with America’s “shale gas revolution.” Natural gas has gained favor as a power source due to its relative affordability compared to coal and its lower carbon dioxide emissions when burned. However, this perceived advantage is tempered by a critical environmental drawback: gas production releases methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide, albeit with a shorter atmospheric lifespan.
A Retreat from Climate Commitments
This escalating reliance on gas-fired electricity generation represents a stark departure from global climate commitments. A decade ago, nearly every nation, including major emitters like China and the US, united under the historic Paris Agreement. The accord’s ambitious goal: to limit global warming by phasing out fossil fuels and achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 2050.
However, the US, the world’s leading gas producer and home to the most data centers, has seen its greenhouse gas emissions rise in 2025, following a two-year decline. The nation nearly tripled its gas-fired capacity in development last year, as detailed in the GEM report. Political shifts, such as the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under President Donald Trump, and policies prioritizing new fossil fuel infrastructure for data centers, further entrench this reliance on gas, actively suppressing climate research and emission reduction efforts. Trump’s “AI Action Plan” explicitly champions the accelerated construction of fossil fuel infrastructure to support data centers.
The Path Forward
The current trajectory presents a critical dilemma: how to balance the rapid innovation of AI with the urgent imperative of climate action. The choices made today in powering our digital future will determine the environmental legacy for generations to come, demanding a re-evaluation of energy strategies to align technological progress with sustainable development.
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