U.S. Housing Market Finds Its Footing: A Shift Towards Balance
The tumultuous currents of the U.S. housing market appear to be settling, with real estate professionals increasingly reporting a move towards equilibrium. According to the latest CNBC Housing Market Survey, a significant shift is underway, signaling a departure from the intense seller-dominated landscape of recent years.
The Shifting Sands of Supply and Demand
In the fourth quarter of 2025, 37.5% of real estate agents surveyed by CNBC characterized the market as balanced, a notable increase from 30% in the preceding quarter. This growing sentiment suggests that while the market hasn’t yet regained full momentum heading into 2026, a fundamental rebalancing is taking hold.
Mortgage rates, which had seen a sharp drop in Q3, stabilized between 6.2% and 6.4% in Q4 2025. This consistency, rather than a further decline, left some potential buyers on the sidelines without a strong incentive to re-enter. Yet, agents like Ashley Rummage from Raleigh, North Carolina, observe that essential life events continue to drive transactions. "The buyers I have seen have been buying because of life circumstances, whether it’s having a baby or moving for a job or retiring or downsizing," Rummage noted.
The survey, a national inquiry of 72 randomly selected agents, also highlighted a potential link between this rebalancing and evolving consumer confidence. The increase in agents reporting a balanced market coincides with growing economic uncertainty and job losses, which may have tempered some of the previous market exuberance.
Bridging the Expectation Gap: Buyers vs. Sellers
Despite the emerging balance, a significant chasm persists between buyer and seller expectations. John Fragola, a real estate agent in Charleston, South Carolina, articulates this perfectly: "Buyers tend to think that the market is like 2008 and sellers tend to think that the market is closer to 2021, 2022, and those are diametrically opposed markets and diametrically opposed mindsets." This divergence stems from the stark realities of 2008’s housing crash and the frenzied, low-inventory market of 2021-2022.
However, market forces are compelling sellers to adapt. A striking 92% of agents reported at least one seller cutting their price in Q4, up from 89% in Q3, with nearly half stating that the majority of their sellers made price adjustments. "Concessions have gotten bigger, especially in my market," Rummage confirmed, adding that many sellers initially clung to 2021 pricing expectations before market realities necessitated adjustments.
Beyond price, affordability remains a critical factor. Heather Dell, a Detroit-based agent, points out that "Homeowners insurance, car insurance and utilities and medical insurance are the top objections that I hear when a buyer talks about buying." While home prices remain historically high, buyers appear to be acclimatizing to this "new normal." Encouragingly, fewer buyers left the market or delayed purchases in Q4 compared to the previous period, and they compromised less on key factors like home size, features, or location.
Still, not all sellers are willing to meet the market. More agents reported delisting properties in Q4, with some clients opting to "pause, pump the brakes here and we’ll come back on in the spring market when there’s more buyers out," according to Fragola.
Looking Ahead: A Glimmer of Optimism for 2026
Despite a slow end to 2025, optimism for the new year is palpable among real estate professionals. A robust 67.8% of agents anticipate improved sales in the first quarter of 2026, and an even higher 77% expect the full year to surpass the previous one. With increased inventory now available, the stage is set for a potentially more active and, crucially, more balanced housing market in the months to come.
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